The coming Sunday plays host to the most anticipated clash on the Premier League calendar – Liverpool vs Manchester United.
Indeed, the two great North-West outfits may not be the title-winning powerhouses of yesteryear, but their rivalry as the two most successful clubs in the history of the English game spans generations.
Their combined fanbase is an outrageous 1,239,000,000 – which is just over 17% of the world’s population and 1.2% of all homo sapiens to have ever walked the earth, as claimed by The Telegraph.
The last time United and the Reds faced each other in the Premier League, the Red Devils walked away from Old Trafford with a 3-0 win. But that result soon became the turning point in a turbulent campaign for the Merseysiders, who have racked up 33 points out of a possible 39 since, remaining undefeated.
4th place Manchester United are still two points and one position better off in the Premier League table however, so who enters the Anfield fixture as favourites?
Perhaps Football Fancast’s exploration into the key individual battles can shed some light on the issue….
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MAROUANE FELLAINI VS JORDAN HENDERSON AND EMRE CAN
Louis van Gaal’s surprising tendency towards long ball football has become one of the season’s hottest discussion topics at Manchester United. Far from the flowing football of the Ferguson era, the Red Devils are currently third in the Premier League’s long ball rankings, surrounded by teams fighting for their lives at the less glamorous end of the table:
They also produce the third-most crosses per match:
And an integral component in that pattern of play, at least over the course of the last few months, is Marouane Fellaini, a 6 foot 4 ball of hair and elbows who averages 3.8 successful aerial duels per match – ranking him 15th overall – in the Premier League.
As you can see from his heatmap against Tottenham from last weekend, the Belgium international constantly contests space in and around the box to create flick-ons, knock-downs and general confusion for the opposition defence.
Fellaini scored United’s first in a 3-0 win against the Lilywhites, and huge factor in his effectiveness was Ryan Mason’s inability to track runs and protect the equally inexperienced Eric Dier playing behind him.
So although Martin Skrtel and Emre Can will have to be on top of their games to limit Fellaini’s formidable aerial threat, Liverpool being currently the Premier League’s third-worst in terms of aerial duels per game:
It’s equally imperative Jordan Henderson, coming directly against Fellaini in his recently favoured left pocket, offers some protection from the front too.
Now take a look at this heatmap from Liverpool’s last encounter with Manchester United in December:
They may have lost 3-0, but Fellaini’s aerial threat hardly came into the equation. Keeping the cumbersome midfielder in possession is far safer than him latching onto long passes into the final third.
Sterling and Coutinho vs Michael Carrick or Daley Blind
At the veteran age of 33, with 418 top flight appearances under his belt, Michael Carrick is undisputedly one of the most experienced and dependable holding midfielders in the Premier League.
Against Liverpool however, the England international faces an unusual proposition. The 3-4-3 formation inspiring the Reds’ miraculous turnaround since the 3-0 defeat at Old Trafford includes two attacking midfielders – predominantly Philippe Coutinho and Raheem Sterling – that love exploiting the wide-central spaces and often tend to overlap each other. Take this heatmap from their 2-1 win against Manchester City for example:
It was a similar case during Liverpool’s 3-2 victory over Spurs at Anfield, albeit this time with Philippe Coutinho alongside Lazar Markovic:
Unsurprisingly, both Coutinho and Sterling are amongst Liverpool’s most potent threats going forward this season, so nullifying them is essential to preventing a Reds win:
They’re both direct, speedy dribblers with low centres of gravity however, and for that reason alone Louis van Gaal could opt to reinstate Daley Blind as United’s play-breaker over Carrick. Whilst the Three Lions veteran offers much more experience, Blind’s far quicker and will therefore cope better with the added workload of contesting two attacking midfielders at the same time.
That being said, Coutinho and Sterling are highly versatile. As shown in the heatmap below, Brendan Rodgers moved them out wide at the interval to great effect following a rather tame first half against Swansea on Monday night:
Playing Sterling alongside Daniel Sturridge as a front two, with Coutinho just in behind, remains another option the Liverpool gaffer could utilise if the Reds struggle to get forward.
WAYNE ROONEY VS MARTIN SKRTEL
We’ve seen a huge revival in goalscoring form from Wayne Rooney in recent weeks, in no small part due to him returning to more attacking capacities after a short and debatable stint in Manchester United’s engine room.
The England and United skipper now has five goals in his last six outings for the Red Devils and will be high in confidence after netting against Spurs last weekend. His ability and willingness to influence in every area of the pitch – including in United’s own penalty box – is well known, and demonstrated once again through his heatmap from Sunday’s 3-0 win:
But the predominant task of stopping Rooney in the final third must go to Martin Skrtel, the unifying, organising heart of Liverpool’s back three and by far the Reds’ most dependable centre-back over the last few seasons. This term, Whoscored.com have awarded him the most Man of the Match awards of any Liverpool player:
That being said, the shin-shattering Slovakian could be in for a surprisingly quiet afternoon. As revealed by The Telegraph, Rooney’s record at Anfield throughout his Everton and United days is unbelievably poor for a world-class talent at the home of his most bitter foe:
If United are to leave Merseyside with a win on Sunday, it’s vital the 29 year-old breaks his Anfield hoodoo.
JORDAN HENDERSON VS MANCHESTER UNITED
Amid the gradual decline of Steven Gerrard’s role in the starting Xi, Jordan Henderson has quickly emerged as Liverpool’s most important midfielder, both with and without the ball. Here’s his stats compared to the rest of the Reds’ middle men this season:
Going forward, he’s notched up five goals and seven assists, whilst the England international’s ruthless tenacity defensively marginalised Yaya Toure at the Etihad in a 2-1 win and Tottenham’s Christian Eriksen during a 3-2 victory at Anfield.
The dilemma Manchester United face is their limited athleticism in the middle of the park, with the exception of the forward-thinking Marounane Fellaini. With Michael Carrick (or Daley Blind) already preoccupied by Philippe Coutinho and Raheem Sterling, nobody truly stands out as possessing enough pace, power and energy to stop Henderson influencing at both ends of the pitch. It’s also worth pointing out that he averages the most passes per match of any Liverpool player this term:
Louis van Gaal might be therefore obliged to maintain his faith in Ander Herrera. The Spaniard lacks Henderson’s physicality, but he’s a smart player and can exploit the gaps Henderson leaves behind on the counter-attack.
LOUIS VAN GAAL VS BRENDAN RODGERS
The switch to a 3-4-3 against Manchester United in December has become the turning point in Liverpool’s season. Since then, they’ve won 33 points out of a possible 39 in the Premier League, as detailed below:
And a huge part of that has been the Premier League’s collective inability to truly out-think Liverpool’s exotic system.
The thirst matter of note is the number of passing lines and subsequent triangles. Liverpool’s formation includes 29, whilst a more conventional 4-2-3-1, as United will likely deploy on Sunday, contains just 26:
But more important is 3-4-3’s ability to create two-vs-one scenarios. Take a look at United and Liverpool’s expected formations overlapping:
Suddenly, the full-backs are faced with the dilemma of going tight on Liverpool’s wide players and leaving the centre-back exposed to the combination of an attacking midfielder and Daniel Sturridge, or vice versa, leaving the winger in front of them to track back instead.
It’s a conundrum most sides have failed to deal with, but Louis van Gaal should take note from Garry Monk’s narrow six-man box that suffocated Liverpool’s attacking threat for the best part of an hour on Monday night, as shown in the heatmap below. The two banks of three gave Sterling and Coutinho little room for maneuver, resulting in them playing much wider in the second half.
Likewise, if Manchester United catch the Reds on the break, there’s huge scope for a three-vs-three situation should their wingers exploit the space at the right time.
That being said, van Gaal and Rodgers are both tactically astute managers with incredibly versatile squads. Both have made significant changes at half-time this season to win vital points, so in my opinion it will be a case of who adapts their formation quickest and best to dislodge the other.